Statistical assessment of chronic and acute kidney disease trends in a Nigerian Tertiary Hospital (2019–2024)

Abstract

Introduction: Kidney disease is a global public health burden, and it is especially serious in low-resource settings like Nigeria. Epidemiology of diseases are dictated by temporal, seasonal as well as demographic factors but longitudinal studies from a tertiary hospital in Nigeria are limited. Objective: The objectives of this study are to describe the temporal seasonal patterns in the monthly incidence of kidney disease at the University College Hospital (UCH) Ibadan, January 2019- December 2024 and to ascertain if there is a statistically significant association between the sex of the patient and type of kidney disease chronic kidney disease (CKD) or acute kidney injury (AKI). Methods: Retrospective longitudinal ecological research was conducted using measured aggregate secondary data on 7038 kidney diseases that were reported to the UCH from January 2019 to December 2024. Trends and seasonality were separated using additive time series decomposition.  Statistical significance of monotonic temporal trends was assessed using the Mann–Kendall test while the association of patient sex and type of disease was evaluated. Results: The average monthly observation over 72 months indicated  cases. According to the Mann–Kendall test, total monthly cases show a statistically significant declining trend  The same is true for all subgroups except female CKD . We observed a yearly cycle with peaks in Q1 and troughs in Q2.  Among the total 7,038 cases, there were  male and  female. AKA was seen in  cases and CKD in 3,463 (49.2%). The association between sex and type of disease was noted to be significant  with a predominance in males for AKA and females for CKD. Conclusion:  Over a period of six years at SUCH Ibadan, there has been a significant overall decline in the incidence of kidney diseases. Also, we observed seasonal and sex differences in disease type. These findings warrant planning for targeted surveillance, sex-stratified prevention and resource planning during high-risk seasons.